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Party leaders that meet participation criteria for the Leaders’ Debates for the 45th General Election

I. Introduction

The Leaders' Debates Commission ("the Commission") is mandated with setting the participation criteria for the leaders' debates and ensuring that the leader of each political party that meets those criteria is invited to participate in the debates.

Based on the participation criteria previously established, a review of the evidence and in consideration of recommendations received from the Commission’s Polling Advisory Group, the Commission has decided which political parties meet the debate participation criteria.

This document provides an overview of the process to date, determines the parties that qualify under each of the three participation criteria, and provides the Commission's rationale for these determinations.

The leaders of the following political parties will be invited to participate in the debates organized by the Commission for the 45th General Election:

  • The Bloc Québécois
  • The Conservative Party of Canada
  • The Green Party of Canada
  • The Liberal Party of Canada
  • The New Democratic Party

II. Overview, Context, and Process to Date

The Commission is mandated to organize two debates (one in French and one in English) for the next federal general election.

As part of its mandate, the Commission is tasked with selecting the party leaders who will be invited to participate in these debates, as set out in Order in Council P.C. 2018-1322, dated October 29, 2018, as amended by Order in Council P.C. 2020-0871, dated November 5, 2020 and Order in Council P.C. 2024-0598, dated April 24, 2024 ("OIC").

The relevant parts of the OIC that inform the Commission's mandate state as follows:

Whereas it is desirable that leaders' debates be effective, informative and compelling and benefit from the participation of the leaders who have the greatest likelihood of becoming Prime Minister or whose political parties have the greatest likelihood of winning seats in Parliament;

Whereas it is desirable that leaders' debates be organized using clear, open and transparent participation criteria;

[…]

The mandate of the Leaders' Debates Commission is to:

…

(b) set participation criteria for the leaders' debates and ensure that the leader of each political party that meets those criteria is invited to participate in the debates;

(b.1) make the participation criteria public

  • (i) for a general election held in accordance with subsection 56.1(2) of the Canada Elections Act, no later than June 30 before the day set by that subsection; or
  • (ii) for a general election not held in accordance with subsection 56.1(2) of the Canada Elections Act, no later than seven days after the issue of the writs.

The Commission announced the participation criteria and provided a decision setting out its detailed rationale on January 14, 2025, along with an addendum on February 6, 2025 (“participation criteria decision”). In its decision, the Commission concluded that in order to be invited by the Commission to participate in the leaders' debates, a leader of a registered political party must meet two of the following criteria:

(i): on the date the general election is called, the party is represented in the House of Commons by a Member of Parliament who was elected as a member of that party.

(ii): 28 days before the date of the general election, the party receives a level of national support of at least 4%, determined by voting intention, and as measured by leading national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recently publicly-reported results.

(iii): 28 days before the date of the general election, the party has endorsed candidates in at least 90% of federal ridings.

The Commission also published its approach to applying criterion (ii) on March 7, 2025, along with a detailed rationale for that determination (“criterion (ii) decision”).

The participation criteria decision provided that parties intending to rely on criteria (iii) were expected to submit to the Commission a list of candidates they have endorsed in federal ridings no later than 28 days before the date of the general election. Parties were subsequently reminded of this deadline by email on March 7, 2025, and March 24, and again on the submission deadline on March 31, 2025.

III. The Task: Determination of Parties Meeting the Criteria

In order to determine which leaders of political parties will be invited to the two leaders’ debates organized by the Commission, the Commission has considered each of the three criteria in turn to determine those parties that qualify.

A. Criterion (i)

As per the participation criteria decision, in order to qualify under criterion (i), a leader of a registered political party must meet the following:

"on the date the general election is called, the party is represented in the House of Commons by a Member of Parliament who was elected as a member of that party."

The 45th general election was called on March 23, 2025. On this date, the following parties were represented in the House of Commons by a Member of Parliament who was elected as a member of that party, and therefore the Commission concludes that the following parties qualify under criterion (i):

  • The Bloc Québécois;
  • The Conservative Party of Canada;
  • The Green Party of Canada;
  • The Liberal Party of Canada; and
  • The New Democratic Party

B. Criterion (ii)

As per the participation criteria decision, in order to qualify under criterion (ii), a leader of a registered political party must meet the following:

(ii): 28 days before the date of the general election, the party receives a level of national support of at least 4%, determined by voting intention, and as measured by leading national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recently publicly reported results.

In accordance with the criterion (ii) decision, for the purposes of applying criterion (ii) to registered political parties, the Commission selected polls that:

  • Were completed within a 10-day window ending at 4 p.m. Pacific Standard Time (PST) 28 days before the date of the general election (the day of the week four weeks prior to the date of the general election) and released by 5:00 p.m. Pacific Standard Time (PST) on that date;
  • Were conducted by public opinion polling organizations that are either members of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC) or are providing public opinion data to major media organizations, using the organizations' most recent publicly-reported result;
  • report explicit information about the support level for the party;
  • were conducted on a nationally representative sample of at least 1,000 respondents; and
  • publicly release methodological information sufficient for verification of the integrity of the poll, including question wording for the vote choice question(s), fielding dates, and details on sample size, weighting criteria, and survey mode.

In its analysis provided to the Commission on April 1, 2025, included at Annex B, the Polling Advisory Group identified the following public opinion polling organizations that satisfied the selection criteria, and the date of their most recent publicly-reported results within the 10-day timeframe discussed above and its detailed rationale, as follows:

  • IPSOS (March 30, 2025)
  • Léger (March 24, 2025)
  • Liaison Strategies (March 31, 2025)
  • Nanos Research (March 31, 2025)
  • Mainstreet Research (March 31, 2025)
  • Abacus Data (March 30, 2025)
  • EKOS (March 31, 2025)
  • Pallas Data (March 24, 2025)
  • Innovative Research Group (March 21, 2025)
  • Research Co. (March 25, 2025)
  • Pollara (March 31, 2025)
  • MQO Research (March 30, 2025)
  • Angus Reid Institute (March 31, 2025)

The Polling Advisory Group conducted an analysis to verify that the above polls met the inclusion criteria set out by the Commission being: who conducted the poll, how questions were asked, and the overall methodology used by the polling organization (see Appendices and supporting links). The Polling Advisory Group considered all polls which met the inclusion criteria and were completed, and publicly released, in the 10-day window from March 21 to March 31 ending at 5:00pm PDT, inclusive. The Commission has reviewed the evidence provided by the Polling Advisory Group and agrees that each of the above polls meet the requirements for inclusion.

The Commission therefore concludes that it will use the polls identified above to determine whether any party qualifies under criterion (ii).

As a result, by 5:00 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) 28 days before the date of the general election, the following parties received a level of national support of at least 4%, determined by voting intention, and as measured by leading national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recently publicly reported results.

The Commission concludes that parties received the following level of national support under criterion (ii):

Party Average Level of National Support Polls Included to Determine Average (% Received in each Poll)
Liberal Party of Canada 42.985% Ipsos (44%)
Léger (44%)
Liaison Strategies (43%)
Nanos Research (43.6%)
Mainstreet Research (43%)
Abacus Data (39%)
EKOS (48.2%)
Pallas Data (42%)
Innovative Research Group (36%)
Research Co (41%)
Pollara (44%)
MQO Research (45%)
Angus Reid Institute (46%)
Conservative Party of Canada 36.877% Ipsos (38%)
Léger (38%)
Liaison Strategies (38%)
Nanos Research (36.1%)
Mainstreet Research (40%)
Abacus Data (39%)
EKOS (33.3%)
Pallas Data (38%)
Innovative Research Group (34%)
Research Co (37%)
Pollara (35%)
MQO Research (35%)
Angus Reid Institute (38%)
New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.738% Ipsos (9%)
Léger (6%)
Liaison Strategies (7%)
Nanos Research (10.5%)
Mainstreet Research (6%)
Abacus Data (11%)
EKOS (7.1%)
Pallas Data (8%)
Innovative Research Group (13%)
Research Co (9%)
Pollara (10%)
MQO Research (10%)
Angus Reid Institute (7%)
Bloc Québécois 5.554% Ipsos (5%)
Léger (5%)
Liaison Strategies (5%)
Nanos Research (5.3%)
Mainstreet Research (5%)
Abacus Data (5%)
EKOS (4.9%)
Pallas Data (7%)
Innovative Research Group (7%)
Research Co (7%)
Pollara (5%)
MQO Research (4%)
Angus Reid Institute (7%)
Green Party of Canada 2.692% Ipsos (2%)
Léger (3%)
Liaison Strategies (2%)
Nanos Research (2.4%)
Mainstreet Research (2%)
Abacus Data (3%)
EKOS (2.6%)
Pallas Data (2%)
Innovative Research Group (5%)
Research Co (3%)
Pollara (3%)
MQO Research (4%)
Angus Reid Institute (1%)
People’s Party of Canada 2.300% Ipsos (1%)
Léger (3%)
Liaison Strategies (3%)
Nanos Research (1.9%)
Mainstreet Research (3%)
Abacus Data (3%)
EKOS (2%)
Pallas Data (2%)
Innovative Research Group (4%)
Research Co (2%)
Pollara (2%)
MQO Research (2%)
Angus Reid Institute (1%)

Therefore, the Commission concludes that the following parties qualify under criterion (ii):

  • The Bloc Québécois
  • The Conservative Party of Canada
  • The Liberal Party of Canada
  • The New Democratic Party

C. Criterion (iii)

As per the participation criteria decision, in order to qualify under criterion (iii), a leader of a registered political party must meet the following:

(iii): 28 days before the date of the general election, the party has endorsed candidates in at least 90% of federal ridings.

The onus of proof for this criterion rests with the party and not the Commission. Accordingly, political parties intending to rely on this criterion were expected to submit to the Commission a list of candidates they have endorsed in federal ridings no later than 28 days before the date of the general election.

This list had to come from the chief agent of the political party responsible for reporting the party’s endorsements to Elections Canada and be sent by email to the Commission no later than midnight Pacific Time 28 days before the date of the general election. Given that debates are held well in advance of Election Day, parties were not required to demonstrate that those candidates have been formally nominated with Elections Canada.

By midnight Pacific Time 28 days before the date of the general election on March 31, 2025, the Commission received lists from the following political parties:

  • The Green Party of Canada

The list provided by the chief agent of the Green Party of Canada listed 343 endorsed candidates. The Commission was satisfied that the list received by the Green Party of Canada contained endorsements for candidates in at least 90% of the 343 federal ridings.

On April 1st, 2025, after the deadline for the submission of the list of endorsed candidates at midnight Pacific Time on May 31, 2025 had passed, the Commission received a list of endorsed candidates from the People’s Party of Canada. The list provided by the chief agent of the People’s Party of Canada listed 342 endorsed candidates. Despite receiving the list after the deadline had passed, the Commission was satisfied that the list contained endorsements for candidates in at least 90% of the 343 federal ridings.

Therefore, the Commission concludes that the following parties qualify under criterion (iii):

  • The Green Party of Canada
  • The People’s Party of Canada

IV. Impact of Selection Decision: Objectives & Proportionality Exercise

The Commission acknowledges its decision in applying the participation criteria engages the rights to freedom of expression and the right vote protected under the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. When applying the participation criteria, the Commission is guided by its objectives set out in the OIC and how the Charter values at issue will best be protected in view of its objectives.

The Commission set out in its decision on the participation criteria how it balanced the Charter rights of the both the voters and the party leaders with its statutory mandate. The Commission reiterates and relies upon that analysis in its application of the criteria.

V. Conclusion

The leaders of the following political parties will be invited to participate in the debates organized by the Commission for the 45th General Election:

  • The Bloc Québécois
  • The Conservative Party of Canada
  • The Green Party of Canada
  • The Liberal Party of Canada
  • The New Democratic Party

Four political parties qualified under criteria (i) and (ii):

  • The Bloc Québécois
  • The Conservative Party of Canada
  • The Liberal Party of Canada
  • The New Democratic Party

One party qualified under criterion (i) and (iii):

  • The Green Party of Canada

Although the People’s Party of Canada qualified under criterion (iii), it did not meet either of criterion (i) or (ii) for its leader to be invited to participate in the debates.

VI. Next Steps

The Commission has issued invitations to leaders of those political parties that meet debate participation criteria. A party not invited will have an opportunity to ask the Commission to reconsider within two days of the invitation to leaders. The Commission will make its final decision with respect to any such party within three days of that party's application for review. The tight timelines are being set to ensure that both the debates producer has sufficient time to produce a debate of high quality, as required by the OIC, and that the political parties can properly prepare for the debates in order to ensure they are informative for Canadians.

Annex B - Submission by Expert Group re: Party Support Levels (2025) (received April 1st, 2025)

April 1st, 2025
7:51 am

To: Michel Cormier, Acting Commissioner, Leaders' Debate Commission

From: Peter Loewen, André Blais, Claire Durand, Allison Harell, Richard Johnston, Daniel Rubenson, and Laura Stephenson

We have been asked to identify which parties have levels of public support sufficient to qualify them under the Commission's second (ii) criterion for inclusion in the Leaders' Debates:

(ii): 28 days before the date of the general election, the party receives a level of national support of at least 4%, determined by voting intention, and as measured by leading national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recently publicly reported results.

To determine which parties have reached this threshold, we designed and followed the process described here (Annex A): https://www.debates-debats.ca/en/45/participation-criteria-ii/

We considered all polls completed, and publicly released, in the 10-day window from March 21 to March 31 at 5:00pm PDT, inclusive. We have identified 13 polling entities which met our inclusion criteria. Table 1 below presents the information from these polls.

Table 1: Polling Summaries

Firm Posted Date Field Dates Liberal Party of Canada Conservative Party of Canada New Democratic Party (NDP) Green Party of Canada Bloc Québécois People’s Party of Canada Appendix
IPSOS 3/30/2025 March 24 to March 26 44 38 9 2 5 1 A
Léger 3/24/2025 March 21 to March 23 44 38 6 3 5 3 B
Liaison Strategies 3/31/2025 March 28 to March 30 43 38 7 2 5 3 C
Nanos Research 3/31/2025 March 28 to March 30 43.6 36.1 10.5 2.4 5.3 1.9 D
Mainstreet Research 3/31/2025 March 28 to March 30 43 40 6 2 5 3 E
Abacus Data 3/30/2025 March 24 to March 27 39 39 11 3 5 3 F
EKOS 3/31/2025 March 28 to March 30 48.2 33.3 7.1 2.6 4.9 2 G
Pallas Data 3/24/2025 March 22 42 38 8 2 7 2 H
Innovative Research Group 3/21/2025 Mach 19 to March 21 36 34 13 5 7 4 I
Research Co. 3/25/2025 March 23 to March 24 41 37 9 3 7 2 J
Pollara 3/31/2025 March 25 to March 30 44 35 10 3 5 2 K
MQO 3/30/2025 March 25 to March 29 45 35 10 4 4 2 L
Angus Reid Institute 3/31/2025 March 28 to March 31 46 38 7 1 7 1 M
           
Simple Polling Averages 42.985 36.877 8.738 2.692 5.554 2.300  

Based on these results, the Liberal Party of Canada (42.985%), the Conservative Party of Canada (36.877%), the NDP (8.738%), and the Bloc Québécois (5.554%) satisfy the second criterion. The Green Party of Canada (2.692%) and the People’s Party of Canada (2.300%) have not received a level of national support of at least 4%, determined by voting intention, and as measured by leading national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recently publicly-reported results.

Click here for the appendix.

Date modified: April 1, 2025

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